Swings into June

So here’s what happened in the second half of May. Made a few thousand dollars on my $AKTX swing. $NDRA swing was also successful with about $16K in gains. This is one ticker I’m still really torn on. Tremendous potential for the company but still unsure how quickly they can execute to their plan. Have got exposure to the ticker in another account so when the swing started working in this account, I decided to book gains and reduce risk.

As we head into June, I’ve got two swings in the IB account: $CAPR and $AKTX. I’ve got a rather large position in $CAPR in this account because I really think the company is undervalued and remains at the cusp of an inflection point. Love their pipeline and willing to wait for the story to play out. $AKTX is another one I really like with catalysts in the coming weeks. I wish I could buy more $AKTX but the account is tapped out. Might move some money around from $CAPR to $AKTX but do think that $CAPR has potential to make a bigger move than $AKTX in the short term.

Trade Recap (Feb-Apr 2020): $MNLO, $MCEP, $WWR, $AMRN, $BCRX, $ALDX, QTNT

So here’s what happened since my last blog post. Coronavirus and COVID-19 have become household names, $SPY melted from a high of 335 level on Feb 19 to lows of 218 on Mar 23 - that is a drop of 35.8% in just about a month’s time. Oil futures went negative just this past week. Drop in major indices and big caps brought a lot of volatility and depressed valuations to small caps. This in turn created a lot of opportunities for entering and adding to value swing positions.

To take advantage of the situation, I added an additional $30K in funds to this account. I am considering this as a loan to the account and will take a distribution back out to myself at some point.

7/17 Update: Took out $32K in distribution to myself so this cancels out the $30K in funds that I had loaned out to my IB account.

With this in context, let me get to the trade recap from the last couple of months. I executed several trades - most of them worked and some didn’t. I also did a few very short term swings and day trades which is not my usual style. In summary, I’ve got too many trades to recap here in retrospective but in the spirit of full transparency on this account and the blog, I will post below all the trades from my last blog entry to date.

$CAPR was a monster swing and think this one has still some juice to go so will look for additional opportunities to trade this ticker. $ALDX was a nice gainer too. Pretty solid returns overall on the account and I am pleased with the ramp.

Currently holding swings on $AKTX, $NDRA and about 33% of NAV in cash for new opportunities.

Part Deuce

Got really tardy with posting trades and tracking the account. Had taken it from the $27K start to over $52K but then lost track of trades, took some distribution to myself, etc. 

Currently, holding a bag on some $NDRAW warrants but they don’t expire until 2022 so will continue to hold them. Might add some at current levels. 

Current account snapshot as of end of May 2019.  

Sold $GBR; Long $NDRAW, $SORL

Sold $GBR for a small loss or mostly flat. $USO has been strong but $GBR continues to trade sideways with decreasing volume. Think it risks losing the $2 level and could see $1.80s soon thereafter. Don’t want to stay in to find out. Best to cut losses and watch from the sidelines.

Use proceeds to buy 10K warrants in Endra ($NDRAW) @ 88¢. This is a small diagnostic imaging company that is potentially at an inflection point. I am choosing to do a play in warrants vs. commons in this account for a couple of reasons:

• I am just jaded trading $NDRA commons and with data imminent, I still don’t know how the market will react to their data in short term. Warrants give me an opportunity to take a longer term view of the investment that allows for a decent runway for the company to execute their strategy

• I have bought a small 15K position in $NDRA commons in one of my other accounts so that will take care of exposure to Endra commons

Below is my back of the napkin math on potential opportunity that warrants could offer if the Endra story gets legs:

On a separate note, bought a small position of 2,000 shares in $SORL just over $3. This is a beat-down Chinese auto parts company that is known to make big moves on positive earnings. I plan to hold my position through the upcoming ER.

Sold $NDRA

Sold entire position in $NDRA in the $2.80s for a small loss. This was ranging under $2 for quite some time so best to minimize losses and re-assess the trade. Going to stay in cash for a little bit on this account. Will update once I start a new swing here. 

Meanwhile, still bullish long term on $NDRA. I’m building a sizable position in my bigger account in $NDRAW (warrants) since I think the risk/reward there is very favorable.  

Sold $FRSX; Added $NDRA

$FRSX continues to see lack of volume even after a solid investor presentation earlier this month. I sold my position for a small gain. Followed that small win with two unsuccessful trades - $PLAG and $LMFA. Neither of them seemed to work so cut losses when chart lost key levels of support. Market remains to be extremely choppy going into end of the year.

Used funds to add to $NDRA swing. Now holding 15K shares at avg. $3. Swing is currently $11K under water but I think it will recover from here. This is the only position I currently hold in this account. $NDRA daily looks ugly but it is very oversold and hopefully recovers into the next couple of weeks.

November Recap; Current Swings

Since the shipping season ended in early / mid November, I have been doing a poor job at updating this trade log. Hence, posting a recap of entire November for archives.

In summary, did a bunch of poor trades which didn’t help my account much. November was overall very choppy in the markets so that didn’t help the cause either (daily $SPY chart below).

For my trades, it was not as much of not managing risks correctly but was more around wrong position sizing and rushed entires. Around mid-Nov, I started building a basket of stocks for China theme ($CREG, $CNET, $CCCL) given the G20 meeting end of November. Idea was to anticipate a run up in China stocks leading up to the meeting but they never saw much volume so I booked losses and got out. I never planned to hold China stocks going into the meeting so I followed the plan there.

If G20 meeting goes well, December could see some nice runners. I have got two current swing ideas in the account:

• $NDRA: expecting human data in December; financing out of the way. Long 10K shares at avg. $3.34

• $FRSX: they have a big demo / investor presentation / business update coming up on Dec 17 in Israel. Company also presenting on Dec 5 at another investor event in LA. Could see some volume in anticipation of the event. Stock very illiquid as it stands but my entry is near 52 week lows so very little risk holding here. Long 5K shares at avg. $2.32

Sold $NDRA, $NETE; Bought $SORL

Below are my trades from today.

$NDRA - Sold around $3.06 level from $2.34 entry. This can go higher but booked gains. 30% gain for me so I cashed out. May get back in if I get a pullback to mid to high $2s. I still hold $NDRA shares in other accounts and continue to like this swing idea.

$NETE - sold flat; tried breaking out above $4 yesterday but could not get past $4.10 and today, it dipped back %5. I got uncomfortable and hence, decided to pull out. Will keep on watch.

$SORL - bought 5,000 shares at $3.83. This is a Chinese auto parts co. which usually has a run going into ER. Co will likely PR earnings date but likely to be in mid Nov timeframe. Trades very cheap from a valuation perspective and chart seemed to have put in a bottom. Daily chart below.

Sold $RKDA; bought $NDRA and $NETE

Traded $RKDA poorly. Thesis laid out in previous post still intact but the stock got a volume spike on no news and when there is no follow up volume, there is usually a sell off that hurts the stock - especially when swinging a thin one like $RKDA. I was up $4-5K easy on the day it had that volume spike but chose to not sell since thesis guided me to wait for news. But when there was no follow up volume the next day, I scaled out for a small gain. $800+ booked. 

I continue to believe that current levels around $5 or just below it present a strong entry. I’ve got exposure to $RKDA in my other trading accounts. So will keep it on watch for a potential re-entry in the IB account.  

Used the funds to start two new swings:

1. $NDRA - bought 7,000 shares @ $2.34 avg. They recently did a raise and catalysts are expected in near term. Will look to add more shares cheaper if possible. This is a @super_trades pick and he is an excellent swing trader to follow. 

2. $NETE chart play for me. Bought 5,000 shares at avg price $3.94. Oversold with price sitting on multi-month support area on the daily. 20% of 3M float is short. Co did $63M in revs (Ttm) with expanding revs announced in 1H 2018. Low float, former runner - with the right PR or volume, could get squeezy. So that’s my thesis on $NETE. 

Below is a daily chart for $NETE.