Long $CAPR, $BORN

Here are my current positions:

As mentioned in previous post, I doubled down on $NDRAW and brought down my cost average. I continue to think warrants are very cheap here valuation wise if the thesis works.  

$CAPR is a deliberate play. Recent R/S, low float with data coming up end of June / early July. Co has cash into Q4 and have mentioned that they will raise if the upcoming data is favorable. Tells me there could be a big run especially given that R/S play with news are currently a hot pattern. Chart is setting up and ticker feels like trading thin. My target here is $7-$10+ if it catches momo. 

$BORN is a speculative play. They’re scheduled to delist June 19 so entering for a final delisting run if we get one. ​

Sold $GBR; Long $NDRAW, $SORL

Sold $GBR for a small loss or mostly flat. $USO has been strong but $GBR continues to trade sideways with decreasing volume. Think it risks losing the $2 level and could see $1.80s soon thereafter. Don’t want to stay in to find out. Best to cut losses and watch from the sidelines.

Use proceeds to buy 10K warrants in Endra ($NDRAW) @ 88¢. This is a small diagnostic imaging company that is potentially at an inflection point. I am choosing to do a play in warrants vs. commons in this account for a couple of reasons:

• I am just jaded trading $NDRA commons and with data imminent, I still don’t know how the market will react to their data in short term. Warrants give me an opportunity to take a longer term view of the investment that allows for a decent runway for the company to execute their strategy

• I have bought a small 15K position in $NDRA commons in one of my other accounts so that will take care of exposure to Endra commons

Below is my back of the napkin math on potential opportunity that warrants could offer if the Endra story gets legs:

On a separate note, bought a small position of 2,000 shares in $SORL just over $3. This is a beat-down Chinese auto parts company that is known to make big moves on positive earnings. I plan to hold my position through the upcoming ER.

Sold $NDRA

Sold entire position in $NDRA in the $2.80s for a small loss. This was ranging under $2 for quite some time so best to minimize losses and re-assess the trade. Going to stay in cash for a little bit on this account. Will update once I start a new swing here. 

Meanwhile, still bullish long term on $NDRA. I’m building a sizable position in my bigger account in $NDRAW (warrants) since I think the risk/reward there is very favorable.  

Sold $FRSX; Added $NDRA

$FRSX continues to see lack of volume even after a solid investor presentation earlier this month. I sold my position for a small gain. Followed that small win with two unsuccessful trades - $PLAG and $LMFA. Neither of them seemed to work so cut losses when chart lost key levels of support. Market remains to be extremely choppy going into end of the year.

Used funds to add to $NDRA swing. Now holding 15K shares at avg. $3. Swing is currently $11K under water but I think it will recover from here. This is the only position I currently hold in this account. $NDRA daily looks ugly but it is very oversold and hopefully recovers into the next couple of weeks.

November Recap; Current Swings

Since the shipping season ended in early / mid November, I have been doing a poor job at updating this trade log. Hence, posting a recap of entire November for archives.

In summary, did a bunch of poor trades which didn’t help my account much. November was overall very choppy in the markets so that didn’t help the cause either (daily $SPY chart below).

For my trades, it was not as much of not managing risks correctly but was more around wrong position sizing and rushed entires. Around mid-Nov, I started building a basket of stocks for China theme ($CREG, $CNET, $CCCL) given the G20 meeting end of November. Idea was to anticipate a run up in China stocks leading up to the meeting but they never saw much volume so I booked losses and got out. I never planned to hold China stocks going into the meeting so I followed the plan there.

If G20 meeting goes well, December could see some nice runners. I have got two current swing ideas in the account:

• $NDRA: expecting human data in December; financing out of the way. Long 10K shares at avg. $3.34

• $FRSX: they have a big demo / investor presentation / business update coming up on Dec 17 in Israel. Company also presenting on Dec 5 at another investor event in LA. Could see some volume in anticipation of the event. Stock very illiquid as it stands but my entry is near 52 week lows so very little risk holding here. Long 5K shares at avg. $2.32

Sold $GLBS for a nice gain

As expected, got a pop on $GLBS going into earnings. I peeled most of my shares into high $7s and $8s to book gains and reduce position to 2,000 shares into earnings. Risky but good risk/reward especially since I had already booked gains on remaining shares. Co reported nice earnings but I sold my remainder 2,000 shares too soon leaving almost $2-$3/sh on the table. Lack of vol in AH tricked me into selling too soon but booked solid gains on the trade overall so no complaints. Onto the next one. 

Reduced $GNMX; added $GLBS

$GNMX position had gone overweight in the account. With the catalyst out there in January, the stock continues to be very illiquid. Hence, I reduced my position in $GNMX to 5,000 shares mainly to raise cash in the account. 

Used this cash to add to my $GLBS position. now holding 6,500 shares at avg $6.44. Earnings are coming up for $GLBS in a couple of days and I’m yet to decide how many shares I’ll hold into the earnings. Currently, position underwater with stock closing at around $5.70 area. Based on chart below, I think $GLBS reverses from here. 

Updates: Sold $RKDA; Bought $GLBS

A couple of trade updates in the account: sold $RKDA for a small loss. Stock has showed no bounce, not much volume and with ER coming in the next couple of days, I’ve no interest in holding. Will keep on watch and see how the story unfolds after the ER. 

Used those funds to add to my $GNMX position. Now holding 22K shares at avg $1.25. This has been dead money so far but I still believe in this swing idea. Might see volume here soon.  

Also bought 2,500 shares of $GLBS at avg $7.45 to give this account some exposure to shippers. Probably the only one I’ll buy here in IB account so will see how it plays out. $GLBS has seen some low volume pullback from the recent highs so I’m buying on a dip. 

Flipped $DCIX; bought $GNMX, $IMDZ, $BIOC

Sold $DCIX the next day in morning spike when I thought the momentum was not holding. Probably made like 8¢/sh. Will keep on watch for re-entry for the upcoming shipper’s season in November. May have to get $DCIX at a premium later but decided to use funds elsewhere for now.  

Added to $GNMX position. Now have avg $1.27 with 15,000 shares. I think I’m in this early so one mistake off the bat is over committing my capital to this one trade but I do like the entry spot before volume comes in this name. This could be a multi-week swing for me. Support is at $1.20 and then $1.10 on the daily. Needs to break $1.30 to get traction on the chart. 

Started scaling into $BIOC. Beat down chart and a tiny float. The co recently announced a patent in Japan but has seen no share price appreciation. Recently did a small financing at $2.56 so I think there could be a squeeze here. Currently holding 3,000 shares at $2.28. Would like to add 2,000 more shares. 

Bought 10,000 shares of $IMDZ at $1.66. This is a biotech that has data coming up around Nov 7. Could see a run-up into the catalyst. Gap-fill idea above $1.90 on the daily as well, if it gets there.  

Over-trading; Bought $GNMX and $DCIX for a swing

Definitely over-trading a bit here. Need to cool off a little bit and focus only on quality swings. Today’s trades below.

Market was choppy today so I booked gains when I saw them. Sold $SORL for a quick 10—15¢ gain when it broke $4 but had trouble staying above the $4 line. May re-enter if it dips into the $3.80s. Previous entry was ~$3.83. Still hold some $SORL in one of the bigger accounts.

Bought $GNMX for what might be a multi-week swing. Took 10,000 shares at $1.29 (chased there a little bit). This is a biotech which has data due in Jan 2019. Bought here early for a catalyst run-up type move over the next several weeks. Co recently did a raise to expedite their trial so they should have cash over the next few months. Insiders loaded recently so with volume, this can move closer to $2 as part of a catalyst run-up.

Bought and sold 5,000 shares of $BLRX when it dropped ~15-20¢ intraday on no news. Stock has got data coming up over the weekend. I decided to exit the position flat so as to not have stress of holding shares into data.

Finally, towards the market close, bought 10,000 shares of $DCIX at $1.34 - shipper season may be upon us with Nov only 2 weeks out. $GLBS, another shipper, caught momo so I bought $DCIX as a sympathy play. I like the $DCIX chart so might hold it for a few days in case it does not run this week.

Sold $NDRA, $NETE; Bought $SORL

Below are my trades from today.

$NDRA - Sold around $3.06 level from $2.34 entry. This can go higher but booked gains. 30% gain for me so I cashed out. May get back in if I get a pullback to mid to high $2s. I still hold $NDRA shares in other accounts and continue to like this swing idea.

$NETE - sold flat; tried breaking out above $4 yesterday but could not get past $4.10 and today, it dipped back %5. I got uncomfortable and hence, decided to pull out. Will keep on watch.

$SORL - bought 5,000 shares at $3.83. This is a Chinese auto parts co. which usually has a run going into ER. Co will likely PR earnings date but likely to be in mid Nov timeframe. Trades very cheap from a valuation perspective and chart seemed to have put in a bottom. Daily chart below.

Sold $RKDA; bought $NDRA and $NETE

Traded $RKDA poorly. Thesis laid out in previous post still intact but the stock got a volume spike on no news and when there is no follow up volume, there is usually a sell off that hurts the stock - especially when swinging a thin one like $RKDA. I was up $4-5K easy on the day it had that volume spike but chose to not sell since thesis guided me to wait for news. But when there was no follow up volume the next day, I scaled out for a small gain. $800+ booked. 

I continue to believe that current levels around $5 or just below it present a strong entry. I’ve got exposure to $RKDA in my other trading accounts. So will keep it on watch for a potential re-entry in the IB account.  

Used the funds to start two new swings:

1. $NDRA - bought 7,000 shares @ $2.34 avg. They recently did a raise and catalysts are expected in near term. Will look to add more shares cheaper if possible. This is a @super_trades pick and he is an excellent swing trader to follow. 

2. $NETE chart play for me. Bought 5,000 shares at avg price $3.94. Oversold with price sitting on multi-month support area on the daily. 20% of 3M float is short. Co did $63M in revs (Ttm) with expanding revs announced in 1H 2018. Low float, former runner - with the right PR or volume, could get squeezy. So that’s my thesis on $NETE. 

Below is a daily chart for $NETE.

$RKDA swing long

Bought 7,000 shares of $RKDA at avg $4.87. Co is trading under cash ($5.85/sh) and is debt free. A few catalysts / milestones are expected to hit soon, which I’d like to sell into if the thesis works. Stock has a tiny OS of less than 5M shares with ~3M shares in public float. Former runner.

A couple of slides below from their recent investor presentation that outline the opportunity. 

$RKDA share structure  

Upcoming catalysts

$CLRB - booked gains

$CLRB swing thesis played out perfectly. Got the news today pre market that I was looking for and I sold my shares into the spike. It could go higher but with no immediate catalyst on the horizon and co presenting at a conf later today, I don’t want to stick around. $6K+ in gains so I’ll take it. 

$CLRB swing heating up

Quick update on current $CLRB swing. Still holding all my shares (8,000 shares). Stock has been just ranging below $3 for the last couple of weeks. In that period, it tried breaking above $3.15 a couple of times, but got rejected. Yeserday, the stock broke and held above $3.15 with strong volume. Broke and closed above 50MA as well. Last time it closed above the 50MA line was back in May. 

Been on the road on vacation. But was watching it break out late day from the beach :) Could have booked partial gains but still holding full position since I believe that the stock can do a lot more. Above $3.80 with volume could get really interesting for that gap-fill idea to $5. Updated chart (daily) below. 

Sold $DCAR; added $CLRB

Forgot to update trades yesterday. Sold $DCAR flat on the ER pop (was under water on this small position). Used funds to buy more $CLRB. Picked up 2,000 more shares. Total $CLRB position now at 8,000 shares at $3.15 avg. 

Under water on this one as well but think it will work out. Willing to give it some time.  

Sold $CDTI; Bought $DCAR

Sold $CDTI for a tiny loss. Mostly flat trade for me. Sold since there has been very low volume the past several days and it seemed like the bids were getting taken out. At close of today’s session, stock closed at 50¢ support. If that breaks, there is no telling how low this one goes. 

Moved those funds over to buy 6,000 shares of $DCAR at avg. price of $1.12. Will swing this for a pop unless I get stopped out. Terrible long term chart but has a history of pops on PRs right after a big drop. Playing my odds here. 

Update 8/8

Just like I had thought, $CDTI broke the 50¢ support today and closed more than 9% down on the day. No telling how low it will go before bouncing. $OHGI, which I had sold flat earlier, also took a dump today and printed 20¢ as the day low. Closed -16% on the day. In hindsight, getting out flat on those swings was a good idea. 

$OHGI - Swing

Bought 11K shares of $OHGI at avg. 44¢. Former runner will hold for a spike with volume unless I get stopped out. Made fresh 52 lows couple days back so hopefully it reverses from here. News drop will help.